近日一項重大發展引起加密貨幣分析員注意，數個自2010年代初擁有大量比特幣嘅長期休眠錢包，於2025年5月突然活躍。
當中最矚目嘅係一個同已結業BTC-e交易所有關連嘅錢包，自2012年一直冇郁動，今次【轉帳】超過3,400枚比特幣（以現時價格約值3.2億美元）。當年呢批幣原值唔夠五萬美元，而依家價值係休眠時嘅6,400%增幅。
同時，另一個自2013年未郁過嘅錢包轉移咗2,300 BTC，而區塊鏈數據分析公司近期發現至少有七個每個持有500至1,000枚比特幣嘅休眠錢包，都出現新蹤跡。連同其他錢包，總共超過8億美元比特幣由靜止狀態走向流通。
這些重啟活動與5月初多間主流交易所錄得超過7,000枚比特幣流入有關，包括2,400枚BTC從Ceffu（前稱Binance Custody）轉至幣安主交易所，以及多宗大額存款流入Coinbase Institutional及Bitfinex。呢啲動作正值比特幣盤整於95,000美元附近，引發早期持有者可能準備於本輪牛市頂部沽貨嘅激烈討論。
「這些舊錢包再次出現通常預示住市場即將出現重大拐點，」區塊鏈分析平台Glassnode研究主管Sara Ramirez指出：「經歷過多次牛熊市週期依然堅持持幣嘅人開始郁手，往往會引發顯著價格波動——但方向未必咁易預測。」
有部分市場觀察者將這些動作解讀為利淡訊號，但交易所數據顯示情況更為複雜。儘管有多宗大額流入，上週比特幣從交易所嘅淨流出量達15,000枚，令總交易所儲備降至220萬BTC，創下數個月新低。呢個分歧反映即使有巨鯨疑似準備沽出，但更多投資者將資產轉去冷錢包，繼續長線持有。
點解鯨魚舉動而家特別值得留意
呢波巨鯨動態喺比特幣第四次減半後嘅大市背景下尤其重要。2024年4月減半事件令礦工區塊獎勵由每塊6.25枚減至3.125枚比特幣，歷來帶動牛市，但同時帶來生態系統經濟壓力。
各大礦業公司已開始調整資金策略。例如北美大型比特幣礦企Riot Platforms於2025年4月拋售475枚BTC以維持現金流，反映行內礦工面對更高電力成本及獎勵減半下，財政壓力上升。
「比特幣生態正經歷多重變奏，」加密貨幣交易公司Cumberland首席策略師陳明強指出：「一方面機構化持續提升，ETF與企業資金配置愈趨成熟；另一方面，減半之經濟壓力迫使礦工重新檢視財務管理。再加埋休眠錢包重啟，波動性難免升溫。」
歷史經驗顯示，早期大戶資金流值得高度關注。2017年比特幣牛市，有多個2010-2011年休眠錢包於市頂前數星期活躍；2021年底，2013年前開設嘅多組錢包亦於比特幣由高位$69,000回調前蘇醒，顯示此類動作具「訊號價值」。
休眠持有者決定背後的心理與市場動力
長達十年甚至更耐冇活動嘅比特幣錢包，為市場增添神秘層面。呢啲錢包多屬早期幣主，當時比特幣只值幾蚊甚至幾十蚊，持有人既有超龐大未變現利潤，亦歷盡數個大周期。
呢班持有者的心理因素唔容忽視。好多用家雖多次經歷8成或以上暴跌都未有拋售，資產一度升穿百萬甚至千萬美元時仍堅守。到佢哋終於選擇移動比特幣，通常意味對比特幣前景或自身財政目標有重大轉變。
「早期持有者大致分為三類，」專研加密貨幣投資人行為嘅心理學家Dr. Amanda Rodriguez指：「一係意識形態型堅定派，無論價錢都唔賣；一係策略型累積者，定期調整資產組合；三係見機行事型交易員，專喺市頂市底活躍。近期休眠錢包重啟，可能多屬後兩類，受技術及基本面同時影響。」
區塊鏈鑑證分析顯示，今次轉帳動機不一。有關BTC-e錢包嘅3,400枚BTC，有可能係前用戶回收資產或與交易所2017年停運相關之法律程序。由於該交易所曾涉洗黑錢，令事件更具解讀彈性。
其他重啟錢包，則有遺產過戶、資產整合保安、或預防波動做策略準備之跡象。公鏈數據雖能確證交易發生，但控管人身份始終無法斷定，真意成分主觀。
今輪重啟一個特別凸顯之處，係操作愈加高階。唔同以前大多直接轉去交易所，近期交易往往經私隱增強工具CoinJoin等中間步驟，或先轉去新錢包再到終點，反映長持者保安意識大大提升。
交易所資金流動作為市場情緒先行指標
比特幣往返交易所資金流，長期被視為市場情緒可靠參考。由長線持有者轉入，通常意味拋售壓力醞釀中；反之資金流出，則表示持有及升值信心。
觀察五月首週交易所流入，呈現細緻動向：
- 幣安獲Ceffu託管2,400枚BTC及1,100枚來歷不明BTC轉入
- Coinbase Institutional錄得1,800枚流入，包括Cumberland及Three Arrows Recovery Fund轉移
- Bitfinex錄得960枚入帳，其中約600枚來自休眠錢包
- Kraken及OKX共獲約740枚來自不同來源BTC
呢啲合共約值6.65億美元，但配合總體流向睇，仍然好值得留意。按Coinglass同Glassnode數據，短期內交易所反而淨流出達到15,000枚，比特幣儲備創新低，反映散戶及中等持有者仍然積極吸納，抗衡大型戶出貨。
「交易所資金流背馳正正係市況轉折特徵，」Arkham Intelligence研究主管李蔚解釋：「聰明錢重整部署時，各種投資人行為互相矛盾。最關鍵問題係，散戶持有者能否承接巨鯨潛在沽貨，唔影響價格。」
交易所歷史資金流數據有助參考現況。2017牛市，交易所流入高峰後約18日見頂；2021只需約12日。如模式延續，最近流入或意味短中線需謹慎。
渡過減半後的市場新局
比特幣第四次減半帶來的經濟衝擊，喺礦圈最為明顯，區塊獎勵減少全面壓縮利潤。多家大型礦企被迫檢視資金策略，部分選擇拋售一部分比特幣維持現金流。
Riot Platforms於2025年4月賣出475枚BTC正是適應新環境。現時每枚比特幣生產成本約$37,000（減半前$25,000），即使幣價高企，經濟壓力仍明顯。同業如Marathon Digital Holdings與CleanSpark亦面臨類似情況，只是出售時機策略各異。
「減半徹底改寫咗礦工經濟，」Galaxy Digital Mining高級分析師張晨指出：「即使比特幣近歷史高位，新增供應一減一半，資金調配難題浮現。部分公司被迫賣幣升級設備或擴產，部分則考慮舉債盡量保住手上資產。」
礦工所帶來嘅沽壓是邊際供應新關鍵，每日新產量減至僅約450枚（淨值近$4,275萬美元），但...... modest selling from miners can influence price dynamics, particularly if it coincides with distribution from long-term holders.
礦工的溫和沽售可能會影響價格動態，尤其是當這種沽售同長線持有者分派重疊時。
Institutional strategies beyond mining also show evidence of strategic repositioning. Regulatory filings indicate that several Bitcoin ETFs experienced minor outflows in late April, totaling approximately $410 million across all U.S. spot ETF products. While modest relative to the $14.2 billion in total ETF assets under management, these outflows represent the first sustained withdrawal period since the products launched in early 2024.
除咗礦業之外，機構投資者嘅策略亦出現咗重新部署嘅跡象。監管文件顯示，美國多隻比特幣ETF喺四月尾出現輕微資金流出，累計流出總額大約4.1億美元，涵蓋所有美國現貨ETF產品。雖然呢個數字同ETF總資產管理規模嘅142億美元相比算係溫和，但已經係2024年初產品推出以嚟第一次出現持續資金流出。
Contrasting with these potential distribution signals, companies like MicroStrategy continue their accumulation strategy. The business intelligence firm acquired an additional 12,000 BTC in Q1 2025 through a combination of cash reserves and convertible note offerings, bringing its total holdings to approximately 213,000 BTC. This concentration of Bitcoin in corporate treasuries creates new forms of market influence that didn't exist in previous cycles.
與呢啲可能嘅分派信號相反，像MicroStrategy咁嘅公司就繼續佢哋嘅累積策略。呢間商業智能公司喺2025年第一季再通過現金儲備同可換股債券購入多12,000枚比特幣，令總持幣量增至約213,000枚。將比特幣集中於企業財庫之中，亦帶嚟咗過往周期未曾見過嘅市場影響新模式。
What the Data Reveals
Beyond exchange flows and wallet movements, sophisticated on-chain metrics offer deeper insights into market conditions and potential trajectory. Several key indicators currently present a mixed but generally cautious picture:
除咗交易所資金流向同錢包轉帳之外，進階鏈上數據指標仲提供咗對市場狀況及潛在走向更深入嘅分析。近期幾個主要指標呈現出一個雖然複雜但總體偏審慎嘅局面：
The Exchange Whale Ratio, which tracks the proportion of large transactions relative to total exchange inflows, registered 0.28 in late April - below the 0.3 threshold historically associated with reduced selling pressure from major holders. This relatively low reading suggests that while some whales are active, they aren't yet dominating market flows.
交易所巨鯨比例（Exchange Whale Ratio）追蹤大型交易佔交易所總流入嘅比例，四月底錄得0.28，低於往常同減低主要持有者沽壓相關嘅0.3門檻。比率偏低顯示雖然有部分巨鯨活躍，但未至於主導市場資金流。
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), a measure of market-wide profitability, currently sits at 8%, with its 30-day moving average still negative. For context, previous market cycle peaks saw NUPL exceed 40% before significant correction phases began. The current modest reading suggests potential upside remains before widespread profit-taking emerges.
未實現淨利潤/虧損（NUPL）作為衡量整體市場盈利嘅指標，目前位於8%，而30日移動平均線仍屬負數。比較過往週期頂峰，NUPL大多超過40%先嚟重大調整階段。現時溫和讀數意味仲有一定上升空間，未見大規模獲利回吐。
The MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, stands at 2.4 - elevated but well below the 7+ readings that marked previous cycle peaks. This indicates the market may be warming but hasn't reached excessive valuation territory by historical standards.
MVRV Z-Score（市值與實現價值比率）現時係2.4，屬高位但仍遠低於以往週期頂部出現嘅7以上。呢點反映市場氣氛有所升溫，但根據歷史標準仍未達過熱水平。
Reserve Risk, a metric designed to assess the risk-reward balance of Bitcoin investment based on price and hodling behavior, has climbed to 0.024 - approaching but not yet reaching the 0.03+ levels associated with optimal profit-taking opportunities. This suggests experienced market participants may view current prices as approaching but not yet reaching optimal exit points.
儲備風險（Reserve Risk）用價格同持幣行為嚟衡量投資比特幣嘅風險回報比，目前上升至0.024，接近但仍未到達與最佳獲利時機相關嘅0.03以上水平。呢個狀況代表有經驗嘅市場參與者，可能認為現水平接近但未完全到達理想沽貨位。
Perhaps most tellingly, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the profit ratio of moved coins, has averaged 1.12 over the past week. Values significantly above 1.0 indicate that holders are realizing profits on their movements, but the current reading remains modest compared to late-stage bull market levels, which typically exceed 1.3.
最具啟示性嘅係已花出鏈上產出獲利比（SOPR），即被移動比特幣嘅平均盈利比率，過去一星期平均為1.12。高於1.0表示移動資產嘅持有人有獲利，但同牛市後段通常超過1.3嘅水平相比，目前讀數仍然溫和。
"The on-chain data presents a nuanced picture," says Elena Kowalski, lead analyst at CryptoQuant. "We're seeing early signs of distribution from long-term holders, but the magnitude remains controlled compared to previous cycle tops. The behavior of coins acquired during the 2022-2023 bear market will likely determine whether this develops into a major correction or simply a consolidation phase."
「鏈上數據反映咗一個細緻嘅市場狀態，」CryptoQuant首席分析師Elena Kowalski話。「長線持有者有初步分派跡象，但規模遠較以往週期頂部時受控。2022-2023熊市買入嘅幣點樣處理，將決定今次係大調整定只係震盪整固。」
Beyond the Blockchain
Market participants increasingly recognize that Bitcoin doesn't exist in isolation from broader economic forces. The current whale activity occurs against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, with several factors potentially influencing holder behavior:
愈來愈多市場參與者留意到，比特幣唔再係完全獨立於宏觀經濟大勢。現時巨鯨動向就正正處於宏觀經濟不確定性之下，有多項因素有可能影響持幣者行為：
Inflation concerns remain elevated despite recent Federal Reserve policy adjustments. April 2025 CPI data showed 4.3% year-over-year inflation, exceeding consensus expectations and reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as an inflation hedge. This environment generally supports Bitcoin's value proposition, but also creates volatility as investors recalibrate inflation expectations.
儘管聯儲局最近收緊政策，通脹憂慮依然高企。2025年四月CPI同比上漲4.3%，超出市場預期，進一步強化比特幣作為抗通脹資產嘅說法。雖然呢種環境一般有利比特幣，亦令市場變得波動，投資者需重新調整對通脹前景嘅預期。
Geopolitical instability has intensified in several regions, creating both tailwinds and headwinds for cryptocurrency markets. Emerging market currency pressures - particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America - have driven increased demand for Bitcoin as a dollar alternative, while regulatory responses to these capital flows have created compliance challenges for exchanges and institutional participants.
地緣政治不穩進一步加劇，亦為加密貨幣市場帶來順逆風。新興市場貨幣壓力（尤其東南亞同拉丁美洲）加強咗比特幣作為美元替代品嘅需求；同時，針對呢啲跨境資本流動嘅監管反應，為交易所同機構投資者造成不少合規挑戰。
Traditional financial markets show signs of stress, with the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio reaching 36.7 - approaching levels last seen during the dot-com bubble. This valuation tension creates complex dynamics for Bitcoin, which has shown increasing correlation with risk assets during periods of market stress despite its conceptual positioning as a safe haven.
傳統金融市場明顯出現緊張，標普500經周期調整市盈率升至36.7，逼近科網泡沫時期水平。估值失衡令比特幣市場出現複雜反應，即使比特幣理論上屬避險資產，實際上喺壓力市況下同風險資產嘅聯動性愈來愈高。
Recent regulatory developments also influence market psychology. The SEC's ongoing enforcement actions against several major cryptocurrency platforms contrast with more accommodative approaches in jurisdictions like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE. This regulatory divergence creates both opportunities and risks for market participants, potentially motivating some long-term holders to reduce exposure in certain regions.
近期監管新動向亦左右市場預期。美國證交會（SEC）針對多間大型加密平台發起執法行動，與香港、新加坡、阿聯酋等地較寬鬆政策形成鮮明對比。呢種監管鴻溝帶來機遇同風險，亦可能推動部分長線持有者減低喺某啲地區嘅曝險。
"The interplay between on-chain movements and macro factors has never been more complex," observes James Richardson, chief economist at Bitwise Asset Management. "Early Bitcoin holders often had pure conviction plays with minimal consideration of traditional financial correlations. Today's market requires navigating monetary policy, regulatory frameworks, and institutional capital flows alongside the blockchain fundamentals."
「鏈上數據同宏觀形勢嘅相互影響前所未見地複雜，」Bitwise Asset Management首席經濟學家James Richardson表示。「早期比特幣持有人多係憑信念入市，甚少考慮傳統金融關聯。現時市場，要同時兼顧貨幣政策、監管環境、機構資金流同區塊鏈基本面，難度高咗好多。」
Lessons from Previous Cycles
To properly interpret current whale movements, it's instructive to examine similar periods in Bitcoin's history. Three particular episodes offer relevant parallels:
要正確理解現階段巨鯨行動，值得回顧比特幣歷史上一啲類似時期。當中有三次值得借鏡：
In November 2017, approximately 25,000 BTC moved from wallets dating to 2011-2012, with a significant portion eventually reaching exchanges over a 2-3 week period. Bitcoin peaked at $19,783 on December 17, 2017, before beginning its extended bear market. The lag between major dormant wallet activations and the market top was approximately 22 days.
2017年11月，大約25,000枚比特幣從2011-2012年開設嘅錢包轉出，部分其後喺2至3星期內流入交易所。比特幣於2017年12月17日見頂$19,783，隨即展開長達一年嘅熊市。當時主要休眠錢包啟動到市頂嘅時間差為約22日。
During April-May 2021, several dormant wallets collectively moved around 45,000 BTC after years of inactivity. This coincided with Bitcoin reaching $64,000 before correcting to $30,000. A similar pattern emerged in November 2021, with dormant wallets activating roughly 10 days before Bitcoin's all-time high of $69,000.
2021年4月至5月，多個休眠錢包一齊出動，合共移動約45,000枚比特幣，正值比特幣見$64,000高位後調整至$30,000。同年11月出現類似情景，休眠錢包喺比特幣創$69,000歷史新高大約10日前啟動。
Most recently, in October-November 2023, as Bitcoin recovered from its cycle low, several wallets dating back to 2013-2014 moved approximately 12,000 BTC. However, unlike previous examples, these movements preceded further upside rather than a market top, highlighting that context matters when interpreting such signals.
最近一次係2023年10至11月，比特幣自周期低位回升期間，數個2013-2014年嘅錢包移動約12,000枚比特幣。不過，唔同過往情況，啲幣移動後，市場未即時見頂，反而再升，反映解讀咁啲信號時要考慮當時全局。
"Historical patterns suggest whale movements alone aren't deterministic," explains Dr. Timothy Brooks, cryptocurrency historian and author of "Digital Gold Chronicles." "Their significance depends on market structure, liquidity conditions, and concurrent capital flows. What's particularly interesting about the current cycle is that we're seeing these movements earlier relative to the halving than in previous cycles, which could indicate a more mature market with accelerated price discovery."
「歷史模式表示單靠巨鯨行動唔足以判斷市況，」加密貨幣史學家、《數碼黃金編年史》作者Dr. Timothy Brooks解釋。「其實際意義好視乎市場結構、流動性狀態同資金流。此外，今次週期啲巨鯨轉動比過往週期更早出現，可能反映市場已經成熟，價格發現速度有所提升。」
The lessons from these episodes suggest that while dormant wallet activations often precede major market transitions, the specific direction and timing aren't guaranteed. The signal value comes not from the movements themselves but from their convergence with other technical, fundamental, and sentiment indicators.
從呢啲經驗可以見到，休眠錢包啟動通常預示重大市場轉勢，但具體走向同時機唔保證一致。呢啲信號嘅參考價值，唔單單在於啲資金流轉，而係佢哋同其他技術面、基本面、情緒因素一齊出現時產生作用。
What It All Means for Different Market Participants
For investors navigating the current landscape, the implications of whale movements vary considerably based on time horizon and risk tolerance:
而家巨鯨行動對唔同市場參與者、唔同投資時間框架同風險承受能力嘅意義其實相當唔同：
Long-term holders would be wise to monitor these signals without overreacting. Historical data shows that even during distribution phases, Bitcoin has typically delivered strong returns over multi-year horizons. The current on-chain metrics suggest caution but not panic, particularly for investors with conviction in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.
長線持有者建議係觀察呢啲信號之餘唔好過份反應。歷史數據證明，即使進入資金分派階段，比特幣多數仍可保持多年期優秀回報。現時鏈上指標建議審慎行事，但完全未到需要恐慌嘅階段，特別係對比特幣長線價值有信心嘅投資者。
Active traders should prepare for increased volatility as liquidity potentially fragments. The divergence between high-profile inflows and broader outflows may create dislocations in market depth, resulting in sharper price movements on lower volumes. Risk management becomes increasingly important in such environments.
短線交易員就應該準備好面對波幅加大，因市場流動性有可能分化。亮點資金流入同大盤資金流出之間嘅落差，有機會造成深度失衡，令低成交下價格波動加劇，更加需要嚴格做風險管理。
Institutional investors should contextualize these movements within their broader allocation strategies. For those with systematic rebalancing approaches, the current environment may warrant tighter risk controls but not wholesale position changes. The relatively contained MVRV and NUPL readings suggest market excess remains limited relative to historical cycle peaks.
機構投資者需將啲波動同整體資產配置結合分析。如採用系統化再平衡策略，現時應該考慮收緊風險控制，但未必需完全轉換持倉。MVRV同NUPL指標都反映比特幣市場熱情未及過往周期頂部，過度膨脹風險有限。
Bitcoin miners face perhaps the most complex calculus. The combination of reduced block rewards and potential price volatility creates challenging treasury management decisions. Conservative operations might consider hedging strategies to ensure operational continuity through potential market turbulence.
礦工所面對嘅狀況可以話最為複雜。因區塊獎勵減少配合價格潛在波動，令財務管理更具挑戰。保守策略可以考慮適當對沖，以確保即使遇到市況大變，亦能維持營運。
"The message from early holder behavior is one of strategic repositioning rather than wholesale capitulation," notes Ramirez of Glassnode. "The measured nature of these movements suggests experienced market participants taking some profits while maintaining significant exposure - a balanced approach that reflects the maturation of the crypto market."
「初期持有者現時嘅行動，標誌住策略性調整，而非徹底投降，」Glassnode嘅Ramirez補充。「適度移動反映經驗老到嘅玩家會適量獲利，但仍然保留大量持倉——正好體現加密市場嘅成熟。」
Final thoughts
The reactivation of dormant Bitcoin wallets, combined with complex exchange flow patterns and institutional adjustments, signals an inflection point in the current market cycle. However, unlike previous periods where similar patterns preceded dramatic reversals, the measured nature of current movements suggests a market
休眠比特幣錢包重啟，加上交易所資金流模式複雜同機構調整，標誌住現時市場週期進入一個拐點。不過，較於過往相似情況通常會引發急劇逆轉，今次相關行動相對克制，反映市況...that is evolving rather than overheating.
這個周期與以往不同之處有幾個：比特幣透過ETF及企業財政逐漸變得制度化，加密貨幣的應用場景亦已不再局限於純粹炒賣，多個司法管轄區都對相關監管提供了更明確指引。這些發展一方面帶來穩定的作用，另一方面亦可能增加波動性。
對市場參與者而言，重點不是表示大型調整即將來臨，而是風險與回報的平衡正悄悄轉變。早期參與者——即那些經歷過比特幣各個階段的人——的行為，為我們提供了寶貴的訊號，顯示有經驗的投資者如何看待目前市況。他們的舉動反映出謹慎情緒逐漸上升，但並未至於恐慌。
當比特幣進入第四個減半周期後，這些數碼先行者的舉動提醒我們：雖然加密貨幣市場未必歷史重演，但往往會有似曾相識的局面。鯨魚們的智慧，不在於完美捉準買賣時機，而在於能察覺到基本論述及技術格局何時開始出現變化。
未來數星期將會揭曉，這些早期訊號會否演變成更廣泛的分派階段，抑或只是牛市持續下的資產重新配置。不論結果如何，都強調了密切留意區塊鏈上最有經驗參與者——那些經歷過一切仍能全身而退的人——的重要性。