近期一項重大進展吸引了加密貨幣分析師關注，數個自 2010 年代初期以來長期休眠、持有大量比特幣的錢包，於 2025 年 5 月突然重啟活動。
最值得關注的是，一個與已關閉 BTC-e 交易所相關聯的錢包，在 2012 年後長期未動，近日卻轉移超過 3,400 枚比特幣（以目前價格約值 3.2 億美元）。這筆比特幣最初價值不到 50,000 美元，休眠至今增值超過 6,400%。
同時，另一個自 2013 年未曾移動的錢包也轉出 2,300 BTC，區塊鏈分析公司更發現近幾週，至少有七個各自持有 500 至 1,000 BTC 的休眠錢包，出現活動跡象。這些動態合計讓超過 8 億美元價值的比特幣可能重回流通市場。
此外，這些巨鯨動作恰逢五月初各大交易所出現大量資金流入，超過 7,000 枚 BTC 流向主流交易平台，包括 Ceffu（前 Binance 保管部門）向幣安主站轉移了 2,400 枚 BTC，以及多筆資金存入 Coinbase Institutional 和 Bitfinex。這些操作的時點，正好是在比特幣約 95,000 美元區間盤整，引發市場熱議：早期持有人是否準備在牛熊市頂部賣出避險？
「這些古老錢包重新啟動，往往意味著市場轉折點即將到來，」區塊鏈分析平台 Glassnode 研究主管 Sara Ramirez 表示。「歷經多輪牛熊行情堅守不動的持有者，現在選擇移動資產，通常預示市場將產生大變動——但方向難以預料。」
雖然部分觀察者將此視為利空訊號，但交易所數據展現出更複雜的局面。即使近期有大筆資金流入，過去一週比特幣從交易所的淨流出額仍高達 15,000 枚 BTC，整體交易所持幣降至 220 萬枚 BTC，創數月新低。這代表即使部分巨鯨有出售傾向，更多投資人正將資產轉往冷錢包長期持有。
為何巨鯨動向此刻備受矚目
當前巨鯨活躍浪潮背景下，比特幣正處於第四次減半後的市場環境。2024 年 4 月減半事件，將礦工區塊獎勵自 6.25 枚減為 3.125 枚歷史上減半常是牛市序幕，但也造成整體生態系經濟壓力。
大型礦業公司也開始調整財務策略應對。北美最大比特幣礦商之一 Riot Platforms，在 2025 年 4 月披露賣出 475 枚比特幣以維持流動性，突顯工業級礦工正面臨更高運營壓力和獎勵減半的挑戰。
「比特幣生態同時出現多重交互因素，」加密貨幣交易公司 Cumberland 首席策略官 Marcus Chen 指出。「一方面，機構投資持續透過 ETF 與財庫配置成長，另一方面，減半後的現實促使礦工重新思考資本管理。再加上休眠錢包重啟，無疑加劇市場波動性。」
歷史經驗顯示要高度關注這類早期持有者的異動。2017 年牛市，數個 2010-2011 年的休眠錢包於市場創新高的數週前活躍；同樣，2021 年底多個 2013 年錢包復甦，隨後比特幣自 69,000 美元回檔——凸顯此類信號的價值。
理解投資人心理與市場動態
長期休眠的比特幣錢包，是加密生態獨特一環。這些錢包往往屬於早期入場者，當年以個位數或十位數價格持幣，享有驚人未實現利潤，也親歷多次大牛熊行情。
這些持有人的心理因素不容忽視。很多人挺過多次八成以上暴跌，即使短暫身價達千萬也未有動作。這群人若開始移動資產，通常代表他們對比特幣長遠前景或個人財務目標做出重大重新評估。
「早期持有者普遍分為三種，」專研加密行為心理學的 Amanda Rodriguez 博士說：「一類意識形態型信仰者，幾乎不管價格如何都不賣；一類策略型累積派，階段性調整配置；另一類則見機行事，於認為市場接近極端時出手。近期錢包移動，多半屬於後兩者，結合理性和基本面因素做決策。」
區塊鏈鑑識顯示近期異動背後動機複雜。BTC-e 相關的 3,400 BTC，可能是前用戶追回資產或涉及該交易所 2017 年倒閉的法律程序。由於該平台曾牽連洗錢，解讀此事更加棘手。
其他休眠錢包則符合遺產移轉、安全整併錢包、或提前因應波動作戰略布局等常見原因。公鏈數據能證明「移動」本身，卻很難確定背後真正主體與意圖。
值得注意的是，本輪休眠資金移動較過去顯得更講究安全。以前多數直接送進交易所，這次不少經過 CoinJoin 等隱私增強工具，或暫時轉至新錢包再最終入帳，顯示長線投資人防範意識升級。
市場情緒領先指標
比特幣流入或流出交易所，一直是市場情緒的溫度計。來自長期持有者的單筆大額入帳，往往預示賣壓，反之大量流出則代表強烈「囤幣信仰」與看漲信心。
針對近期交易所流向分析，亦揭示了細膩變化。於 2025 年 5 月 1 日至 7 日間，約 7,000 枚 BTC 湧入主流交易所，具體明細如下：
- 幣安獲得來自 Ceffu 託管 2,400 BTC 及不明錢包 1,100 BTC
- Coinbase Institutional 流入 1,800 BTC，包括來自 Cumberland 及 Three Arrows Recovery Fund 轉帳
- Bitfinex 存入 960 BTC，其中約 600 BTC 為休眠錢包轉出
- Kraken 與 OKX 當期合計進帳約 740 BTC
這些流入以當時價格計算約 6.65 億美元，但須對照同時期更大規模的交易所資金流出。據 Coinglass 及 Glassnode 數據，該週淨流出為 15,000 BTC，顯示普通及中型投資人依舊積極囤幣，儘管大戶有套現跡象。
「交易所資金流背離現象，一直是市場轉換典型特徵，」Arkham Intelligence 研究主管李偉指出。「當聰明資金開始調倉，往往能觀察到不同類群對行情的不同解讀與行動。關鍵在於高信仰散戶能否吸納早期巨鯨的拋壓，且不令價格劇烈波動。」
歷史交易所流向也幫助理解現況。2017 年牛市，資金流入高峰出現於市場頂點前約 18 日；2021 年則縮短到約 12 天。如果這些模式延續，近來的流入值得短中期格外謹慎。
減半後的新局挑戰
比特幣第四次減半後，礦業生態變化劇烈，區塊獎勵縮減令全行業利潤空間緊縮。這一結構轉變迫使多家礦企重新審視財庫政策，包括斷斷續續拋售部分持幣以維持營運現金流。
Riot Platforms 在 2025 年 4 月賣出 475 BTC 正是這種調整一例。如今每枚比特幣生產成本估計高達 37,000 美元（減半前為 25,000 美元），即使售價創高檔，經濟壓力仍不容小覷。其他上市礦企如 Marathon Digital Holdings 與 CleanSpark 亦因應不同而有各自的賣幣策略。
「減半根本上改變礦工經濟算盤，」Galaxy Digital Mining 資深分析師張辰說，「即使比特幣靠近歷史高價，新發行量砍半，仍迫使企業必須慎重資本分配。一些挹注效率升級或擴產的營運資金來自賣出比特幣，另一些則選擇舉債撐持幣台。」
礦工的賣壓加入市場供需平衡，現今日均產量已降至約 450 枚 BTC（市值約 4,275 萬美元），即使... modest selling from miners can influence price dynamics, particularly if it coincides with distribution from long-term holders.
礦工的適度拋售可能會影響價格動態，尤其當這與長期持有者的分批釋出同步發生時。
Institutional strategies beyond mining also show evidence of strategic repositioning. Regulatory filings indicate that several Bitcoin ETFs experienced minor outflows in late April, totaling approximately $410 million across all U.S. spot ETF products. While modest relative to the $14.2 billion in total ETF assets under management, these outflows represent the first sustained withdrawal period since the products launched in early 2024.
除了挖礦之外，機構的策略亦顯示出策略性重新定位的跡象。監管文件顯示，多檔比特幣ETF於4月下旬出現小規模資金流出，美國現貨ETF總計約流出4.1億美元。相較於總管理資產（AUM）高達142億美元，這些流出金額雖然不高，但已是自2024年初這些產品推出以來首次出現的持續性贖回階段。
Contrasting with these potential distribution signals, companies like MicroStrategy continue their accumulation strategy. The business intelligence firm acquired an additional 12,000 BTC in Q1 2025 through a combination of cash reserves and convertible note offerings, bringing its total holdings to approximately 213,000 BTC. This concentration of Bitcoin in corporate treasuries creates new forms of market influence that didn't exist in previous cycles.
與這些可能的拋壓訊號形成對比的是，MicroStrategy 等公司則持續執行加碼策略。這家商業智慧公司在2025年第一季再以現金儲備與可轉換公司債結合的方式，增持12,000顆比特幣，累積總持倉至約213,000顆。比特幣集中於企業金庫，帶來前所未有的市場影響力，是前幾輪循環所未見的新現象。
What the Data Reveals
Beyond exchange flows and wallet movements, sophisticated on-chain metrics offer deeper insights into market conditions and potential trajectory. Several key indicators currently present a mixed but generally cautious picture:
除了交易所流向與錢包轉帳外，進階鏈上指標亦能更深入揭露市場現況與潛在走勢。目前數項關鍵指標呈現出混合但偏向謹慎的訊號：
The Exchange Whale Ratio, which tracks the proportion of large transactions relative to total exchange inflows, registered 0.28 in late April - below the 0.3 threshold historically associated with reduced selling pressure from major holders. This relatively low reading suggests that while some whales are active, they aren't yet dominating market flows.
「交易所巨鯨比率」追蹤大額交易佔總交易所流入資金的比例，4月下旬時來到0.28，低於過去認為賣壓降低的0.3門檻。這較低的數值表示雖然有部分大戶在活動，但尚未主導市場資金流。
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), a measure of market-wide profitability, currently sits at 8%, with its 30-day moving average still negative. For context, previous market cycle peaks saw NUPL exceed 40% before significant correction phases began. The current modest reading suggests potential upside remains before widespread profit-taking emerges.
市場整體未實現盈虧（NUPL）目前為8%，其30日均線仍為負。對比過去週期高點，當時NUPL曾超過40%才引發顯著修正。目前偏低的數值暗示行情短期內仍有向上空間，尚未到大規模獲利了結階段。
The MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, stands at 2.4 - elevated but well below the 7+ readings that marked previous cycle peaks. This indicates the market may be warming but hasn't reached excessive valuation territory by historical standards.
MVRV Z分數（比特幣市值與實現市值比）目前來到2.4，雖略偏高，仍遠低於過去週期高峰時超過7的極端值。這顯示市場雖然熱度上升，但按歷史標準來看仍未達到泡沫區域。
Reserve Risk, a metric designed to assess the risk-reward balance of Bitcoin investment based on price and hodling behavior, has climbed to 0.024 - approaching but not yet reaching the 0.03+ levels associated with optimal profit-taking opportunities. This suggests experienced market participants may view current prices as approaching but not yet reaching optimal exit points.
儲備風險指標（Reserve Risk），用以衡量比特幣投資的風險報酬平衡，目前升至0.024，接近但尚未觸及0.03以上、傳統上被視為獲利了結最佳時機的區間。這意味資深參與者可能認為現價已接近、但尚未達到最理想的出場點。
Perhaps most tellingly, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the profit ratio of moved coins, has averaged 1.12 over the past week. Values significantly above 1.0 indicate that holders are realizing profits on their movements, but the current reading remains modest compared to late-stage bull market levels, which typically exceed 1.3.
最具參考性的是「花費輸出利潤率」（SOPR），衡量近期移動比特幣的獲利比例。過去一週其均值為1.12。高於1表示持幣者在移動時實現利潤，但和牛市末期常見的1.3以上相較，眼下獲利了結的規模仍屬溫和。
"The on-chain data presents a nuanced picture," says Elena Kowalski, lead analyst at CryptoQuant. "We're seeing early signs of distribution from long-term holders, but the magnitude remains controlled compared to previous cycle tops. The behavior of coins acquired during the 2022-2023 bear market will likely determine whether this develops into a major correction or simply a consolidation phase."
CryptoQuant 首席分析師 Elena Kowalski 表示：「鏈上數據呈現出細膩的輪廓。我們觀察到長期持有者有初步釋出的徵兆，但規模相對前幾輪頂部還在可控範圍。2022-2023熊市期間入手的比特幣如何流向，將決定這次是大型修正還是僅屬盤整期。」
Beyond the Blockchain
Market participants increasingly recognize that Bitcoin doesn't exist in isolation from broader economic forces. The current whale activity occurs against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, with several factors potentially influencing holder behavior:
市場上的參與者日益意識到，比特幣並非孤立於整體經濟之外。當前巨鯨行為的發生，正處於宏觀經濟不確定性的背景下，且多種因素正潛在影響持幣者行為：
Inflation concerns remain elevated despite recent Federal Reserve policy adjustments. April 2025 CPI data showed 4.3% year-over-year inflation, exceeding consensus expectations and reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as an inflation hedge. This environment generally supports Bitcoin's value proposition, but also creates volatility as investors recalibrate inflation expectations.
儘管美聯儲近期調整政策，通脹疑慮仍居高不下。2025年4月美國CPI年增率高達4.3%，超出預期，進一步強化比特幣作為對抗通膨資產的說法。這種環境總體上支撐比特幣價值，但也造成投資人通膨預期不穩、行情波動劇烈。
Geopolitical instability has intensified in several regions, creating both tailwinds and headwinds for cryptocurrency markets. Emerging market currency pressures - particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America - have driven increased demand for Bitcoin as a dollar alternative, while regulatory responses to these capital flows have created compliance challenges for exchanges and institutional participants.
多地地緣政治動盪升級，為加密市場帶來順風與逆風效應。新興市場匯率壓力（特別是東南亞與拉美）推高比特幣作為美元替代品的需求，但各國針對這類資金流向的監管反應，亦讓交易所與機構參與難度加大。
Traditional financial markets show signs of stress, with the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio reaching 36.7 - approaching levels last seen during the dot-com bubble. This valuation tension creates complex dynamics for Bitcoin, which has shown increasing correlation with risk assets during periods of market stress despite its conceptual positioning as a safe haven.
傳統金融市場亦顯現壓力，S&P 500 的週期調整本益比達36.7，逼近網路泡沫時期的高點。這類估值緊繃，讓比特幣市場出現複雜反應──雖然比特幣定位為避險資產，但市場壓力時與風險資產的聯動卻在增加。
Recent regulatory developments also influence market psychology. The SEC's ongoing enforcement actions against several major cryptocurrency platforms contrast with more accommodative approaches in jurisdictions like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE. This regulatory divergence creates both opportunities and risks for market participants, potentially motivating some long-term holders to reduce exposure in certain regions.
最近的監管發展亦深刻影響市場氛圍。美國SEC持續對多家主流加密平台進行執法行動，與香港、新加坡、阿聯酋等地監理寬鬆的態度大相逕庭。這種監管分歧為參與者帶來機會與風險，也可能促使部分長線持有者在某些區域降低曝險。
"The interplay between on-chain movements and macro factors has never been more complex," observes James Richardson, chief economist at Bitwise Asset Management. "Early Bitcoin holders often had pure conviction plays with minimal consideration of traditional financial correlations. Today's market requires navigating monetary policy, regulatory frameworks, and institutional capital flows alongside the blockchain fundamentals."
Bitwise 資產管理公司首席經濟學家 James Richardson 指出：「鏈上動態與宏觀因素的交織前所未有地複雜。早期比特幣持有人更多是憑信念投入，幾乎不考慮傳統金融聯動。現今市場則必須兼顧貨幣政策、監管格局、機構資金流與區塊鏈基本面。」
Lessons from Previous Cycles
To properly interpret current whale movements, it's instructive to examine similar periods in Bitcoin's history. Three particular episodes offer relevant parallels:
要正確詮釋當前巨鯨動態，參考比特幣歷史上類似階段頗具啟發性。以下三段經歷值得對照：
In November 2017, approximately 25,000 BTC moved from wallets dating to 2011-2012, with a significant portion eventually reaching exchanges over a 2-3 week period. Bitcoin peaked at $19,783 on December 17, 2017, before beginning its extended bear market. The lag between major dormant wallet activations and the market top was approximately 22 days.
2017年11月，約有25,000顆比特幣自2011-2012年建立的錢包移動，並於2-3週內大量流向交易所。2017年12月17日價格觸及$19,783高點，隨即進入長期熊市。主要休眠錢包啟動至市場見頂，時差約22天。
During April-May 2021, several dormant wallets collectively moved around 45,000 BTC after years of inactivity. This coincided with Bitcoin reaching $64,000 before correcting to $30,000. A similar pattern emerged in November 2021, with dormant wallets activating roughly 10 days before Bitcoin's all-time high of $69,000.
2021年4-5月，多個多年未動的錢包共計移動45,000顆比特幣，當時比特幣也觸及$64,000後急挫至$30,000。2021年11月亦有類似現象，休眠錢包啟動大約十天後，比特幣創下$69,000的歷史高價。
Most recently, in October-November 2023, as Bitcoin recovered from its cycle low, several wallets dating back to 2013-2014 moved approximately 12,000 BTC. However, unlike previous examples, these movements preceded further upside rather than a market top, highlighting that context matters when interpreting such signals.
最近一次是在2023年10-11月，當比特幣自低點反彈時，來自2013-2014年的錢包移動約12,000顆比特幣。與前例不同，這次移動反而引領後續上漲而非見頂，顯示詮釋此類信號時市場背景至關重要。
"Historical patterns suggest whale movements alone aren't deterministic," explains Dr. Timothy Brooks, cryptocurrency historian and author of "Digital Gold Chronicles." "Their significance depends on market structure, liquidity conditions, and concurrent capital flows. What's particularly interesting about the current cycle is that we're seeing these movements earlier relative to the halving than in previous cycles, which could indicate a more mature market with accelerated price discovery."
數位貨幣史家、《數位黃金編年史》作者 Timothy Brooks 博士解釋：「歷史顯示，巨鯨移動本身並非決定性訊號。關鍵還需考慮市場結構、流動性條件及資本流向。此次週期有趣之處在於這些舉動比往常更早於減半之前出現，或許意味市場更加成熟、價格發現更快。」
The lessons from these episodes suggest that while dormant wallet activations often precede major market transitions, the specific direction and timing aren't guaranteed. The signal value comes not from the movements themselves but from their convergence with other technical, fundamental, and sentiment indicators.
這些經驗教訓說明，雖然休眠錢包啟動常與重大市場轉折同時發生，但具體方向與時點卻無法保證。訊號的意義來自於與其他技術、基本面及情緒指標的共振，而非金流本身。
What It All Means for Different Market Participants
For investors navigating the current landscape, the implications of whale movements vary considerably based on time horizon and risk tolerance:
對於身處當前市場的投資者而言，巨鯨行為的意涵會因投資週期與風險承受度而有極大差異：
Long-term holders would be wise to monitor these signals without overreacting. Historical data shows that even during distribution phases, Bitcoin has typically delivered strong returns over multi-year horizons. The current on-chain metrics suggest caution but not panic, particularly for investors with conviction in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.
長期持有者宜關注相關訊號勿過度反應。歷史數據顯示，即使在拋壓階段，比特幣多年期表現通常仍頗為優異。現階段鏈上指標偏向謹慎但無須恐慌，特別對堅信比特幣長期價值人士更是如此。
Active traders should prepare for increased volatility as liquidity potentially fragments. The divergence between high-profile inflows and broader outflows may create dislocations in market depth, resulting in sharper price movements on lower volumes. Risk management becomes increasingly important in such environments.
積極交易者則需迎戰潛在流動性碎片化帶來的劇烈波動。焦點資金流入與整體流出同步，容易使市場深度出現扭曲，少量成交卻也可能劇烈推動價格。此環境下風險控管更顯重要。
Institutional investors should contextualize these movements within their broader allocation strategies. For those with systematic rebalancing approaches, the current environment may warrant tighter risk controls but not wholesale position changes. The relatively contained MVRV and NUPL readings suggest market excess remains limited relative to historical cycle peaks.
機構投資人則宜將這些動態置於所有配置策略之下檢視。對執行系統性再平衡策略者而言，現環境建議加強風控而非大幅調整持倉。相對溫和的 MVRV 與 NUPL 表明市場泡沫與歷史高點相比仍受控。
Bitcoin miners face perhaps the most complex calculus. The combination of reduced block rewards and potential price volatility creates challenging treasury management decisions. Conservative operations might consider hedging strategies to ensure operational continuity through potential market turbulence.
比特幣礦工則可能遇到最複雜的挑戰。減半後的區塊獎勵下降搭配潛在高波動，使金庫管理難上加難。保守營運單位可考慮利用避險策略，以確保於劇烈市場波動時依然能維持營運。
"The message from early holder behavior is one of strategic repositioning rather than wholesale capitulation," notes Ramirez of Glassnode. "The measured nature of these movements suggests experienced market participants taking some profits while maintaining significant exposure - a balanced approach that reflects the maturation of the crypto market."
Glassnode 的 Ramirez 指出：「早期持幣行為釋放出的訊息是策略調整，並非恐慌性砍倉。這些動作呈現出有計畫地實現部分獲利並保留主要部位—這是加密市場日益成熟的體現。」
Final thoughts
The reactivation of dormant Bitcoin wallets, combined with complex exchange flow patterns and institutional adjustments, signals an inflection point in the current market cycle. However, unlike previous periods where similar patterns preceded dramatic reversals, the measured nature of current movements suggests a market
休眠比特幣錢包再度啟動，加上多變的交易所資金流向及機構調整部位，顯示本輪市場循環已進入關鍵拐點。不過與以往類似跡象往往預示劇烈反轉不同，這一輪有節制的移動反而反映出市場…that is evolving rather than overheating.
這是正在發展，而非過熱。
Several factors distinguish this cycle from its predecessors: the institutionalization of Bitcoin through ETFs and corporate treasuries, the diversification of cryptocurrency use cases beyond pure speculation, and greater regulatory clarity in many jurisdictions. These developments create both stabilizing influences and new sources of volatility.
有幾個因素讓本輪周期與以往不同：比特幣透過 ETF 及企業資金的機構化、加密貨幣用例從純粹投機逐漸多元化，以及許多司法管轄區監管上的更大明確性。這些發展同時帶來穩定的力量與新的波動來源。
For market participants, the key takeaway is not that a major correction is imminent, but that the risk-reward balance is shifting. The behavior of early adopters - those who have witnessed every phase of Bitcoin's development - provides valuable signals about how experienced investors view current market conditions. Their actions suggest increasing caution but not yet alarm.
對市場參與者來說，最重要的不是重大修正即將發生，而是風險與報酬的平衡正在改變。早期使用者——那些親眼見證比特幣發展每一階段的人——的行為，對於經驗豐富的投資人如何看待當前市場狀況，提供了寶貴的訊號。他們的行動顯示出愈來愈謹慎，但尚未感到警覺。
As Bitcoin navigates its fourth post-halving cycle, the movements of these digital pioneers offer a reminder that in cryptocurrency markets, history may not repeat, but it often rhymes. The wisdom of the whales lies not in timing the market perfectly, but in recognizing when the fundamental narrative and technical setup begin to change.
當比特幣進入第四次減半後的周期時，這些數位先驅者的動作提醒我們，在加密貨幣市場，歷史或許不會重演，但常常押韻。巨鯨的智慧並非在於準確掌握市場時機，而是在於察覺基本敘事和技術面開始出現變化的時候。
The coming weeks will reveal whether these early signals develop into a broader distribution phase or simply represent portfolio rebalancing within an ongoing bull market. Either way, they underscore the value of monitoring the blockchain's most experienced participants - those who have seen it all before and lived to tell the tale.
接下來幾週將揭曉，這些早期訊號究竟會演變成更廣泛的分配階段，還是僅僅代表牛市持續中的投資組合再平衡。無論如何，都進一步凸顯持續關注區塊鏈上最有經驗參與者——那些一切都曾見證過且依然活躍於市場中的人——的價值。